8/29/08

My September Prediction




I'll be trying to predict and have some fun with the electoral map every three weeks or so from here on out.

My prediction based on some poll readings, elementary knowledge of states, and lots and lots of pulling this out of my butt is attached in picture format:

Notice I think Florida will stay red. Currently polls show that the race is tied (Mason Dixon shows Obama with a one point lead, which is within the Margin of Error or MoE). Obama's presence on the various university campuses [a first!] and Howard Dean style organizations and other pushes even in areas that are very Republican give me hope. But it's Florida and shipping personnel in from places from around the country is a bit of a blunder.

I suggest New Hampshire will be a slight Republican victory despite polls, and that the American southwest will get away from Obama [Also despite polls in New Mexico.] Recent polls in AZ, NM, CO, NV show Obama with a +45 point lead over John McCain with Hispanics. I think Colorado which has been turning Democrat over the last two elections, will finally vote Democratic, aided by the convention and rallies that have taken place there.

I think Missour-ah will beat out Missouri and it'll stay Republican. Just like the Republicans always think New Jersey will be Republican and they get blown out, I think that's what going to happen to Democrats here. Sen. McCaskill though was one of the best campaigners for Obama, she may keep this closer.

Virginia despite an impressive ground game [I've seen and participated first hand there] will not win Fairfax County and other suburbs of D.C. by enough and will be a lost. It's still has a strong top half of the ticket though. Iowa will switch and be Democratic, giving Barack his second straight victory in the state. He's invested a lot of ad time here, and spent a lot of time there during the primaries.

NH will probably be Democratic, but I'm being pessimistic and I'll say McCain, who is really well liked in the state will win. The state gave him a breath of air in 2000 and again this year. It also tends to try to buck the trends and is very independent minded.

Ohio and Pennsylvania will both be the crucial ones, they are the wild cards in this election. Pennsylvania will be seeing a lot of their boy from Scranton, Pennsylvania- Sen. Joe Biden. I think that considering before the Biden pick Sen. Obama led Sen. McCain in a 5 poll composite by 48.1-41.4, that this state may leave the Republicans field. The economy is king here and Governor Palin does not have a great amount of experience and doesn't shore up McCain's biggest weakness. Romney would have helped here and in Michigan. The Republicans also don't have the general lead monetary edge by as much anymore, thanks to the influx of online donors, and will not be able to sustain resources in enough places, considering they are fully on the defensive this cycle. With the overall electoral situation, there's NO chance Republicans win both of them, which is pretty much what they need. Ohio and Pennsylvania have some Appalachian tendencies [WASP's and age wise] which may be their only saving grace. Using the same 5 poll composite in Ohio, it's 44-42 for Sen. Obama. It will likely be the tougher of the two states for Democrats to win. If Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendel is half as good as he was for Hillary, it's a closed case, he has a strong political machine, particularly within the Philadelphia area. He also has indentified the Southwestern portion to the state as a place to target, which is exactly where Democrats need to be at.

Michigan's economic struggles make it a Democratic state, and Governor Granholm will get credit for carrying this state. Obama's plan to help the automobile industry [through rewarding them for green investments, etc] and Joe Biden's strong union ties will be the determining factors. Alaska has been sealed for the Republicans now, thanks to Governor Palin being chosen as the VP nominee. This will also help the GOP keep the Senate seat of the indicted Sen. Ted Stevens and of Congressman Don "Bridge to nowhere" Young.

Final Result in my September prediction: 300 Votes for Senator Obama- 238 for McCain.

This is an improvement on my August one of 283-255 For Obama. Effectively the gap remains the same for Sen. McCain, though the beginnings of a tightening race are visible now in many states. A very good Democratic convention will likely give Obama a bump this weekend, and then we'll see a McCain bump for his convention. It'll take until right before the first Debate on September 26 till we see what the real numbers are, and after that, we have the first debate, then the vice-presidential one on Oct 2nd.

It's gonna be a wild 66 days!

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Please stop regurgitating Republican lies. McSame is NOT popular in NH. He came in THIRD in January BEHIND Hillary and Obama. He has never led in a poll since the early Spring, averaging only 41%. NH Democrats have gained 87,000 members in the past six years - the GOP only 15,000. Dems have only 5,000 fewer members as of June. It is likely we will take the majority within weeks. The energy, the passion, the organization is all on the Democratic side.

Put it in as BLUE.

Ray Buckley, Chair
NH Democratic Party

Miamian Blues said...

Kind Sir,
I agree with you that the NH Democratic Party is really pushing forward strong with the increase in voter registration. The last two instate polls I've seen however, show

From ARG on 8/18-20/08 a poll of 600 Likely Voters 45 McCain 46 Obama Undecided 9

Rasmussen 8/19/08 tracking poll of 700 Likely Voters shows McCain 46 and Obama 47 With 6% undecided.

I hope I'm wrong, I just think it's very tight. I wish you guys utter success nonetheless, both in this race, for Shaheen and for the retention of Carol Shea-Porter