SoFla House Race Numbers

Bendixen & Associates. 6/6-22. MoE 5% in each district. (No trend lines)

Diaz-Balart (R) 44
Garcia (D) 39

Diaz-Balart (R) 41
Martinez (D) 37

Ros-Lehtinen (R) 58
Taddeo (D) 31

Taddeo looks to be struggling with these numbers, but the Diaz-Balart's look in a world of hurt. Particularly, Lincoln looks like he's going to need a lot of help with those numbers. 50% is generally what an incumbent wants to be at. Mind you the two Diaz-Balart races are in the poll's margin of error. New voters though will lean (D) and this poll doesn't focus nearly enough on those. With the added African American voter increase from Obama on the ballot not likely to show, it will depend on the House candidates and their State Representative races to turn out their folks. In that case, the Republicans may end up sneaking this one out, but it'll be very tough.

No comments: