New Poll Shows Martinez beating Lincoln, Obama-Mccain tied

Roll Call runs a poll that shows a 48-46 for Raul Martinez over Lincoln Diaz-Balart.

The poll of 632 likely voters was taken Aug. 24-26 for Roll Call by SurveyUSA, an automated opinion research firm. Voters were given the option of responding to the poll in either English or Spanish; the poll had a 4-point margin of error.

Younger voters are less reliable than their older counterparts when it comes to showing up at the polls, and many of the district’s younger voters are non-Hispanic Cubans. Voters who are 18 to 49 years old favored Martinez 55 percent to 38 percent, while voters older than 50 favored Diaz-Balart, 54 percent to 41 percent. Similarly, Obama led McCain among younger voters while McCain was the favorite among older voters

Obama and McCain are tied at 48 here. However, Lincoln Diaz-Balart is on the air [as is brother Mario] while the two Democrats haven't started. This is a mixed bag, it means Lincoln has begun to swing over some voters, but also that the potential for Raul is huge.

Mason-Dizon polling shows Obama Leading McCain by 1 point,with 11% undecided. It's a flat out tie in those races.